Demise of the Left

Ichiro Suzuki

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and the Liberal Democratic Party scored a historic win in the February 8 election for the House of Representatives (the Lower House). Takaichi took the risk of dissolving the House only 16 months into its 4 year term. Her rationale for calling the shots was to ask voters if they really had trust in her or not. She has been enjoying unusually high approval rating since her rise to PM last October. Former PM Shigeru Ishiba was forced to resign after having lost a big time in the October 2024 general election, followed by two disastrous showings last summer in the Tokyo regional and the Upper House elections.

Oppositions shouted there was no great cause for an election so early, but there was one. On Takaichi’s ascent, coalition parter Komeito had left after 26 years of teaming with the LDP. Takaichi was too conservative for them to bear. Vacancy left by Komeito was filled by Japan Innovation Party, which is usually called Ishin. They are genuinely conservative, as the only political party advocating smaller government. Ishin has a strong presence in Osaka and the neighboring area after lifting Osaka’s local government from financial ruins through aggressive budget restructuring. It was appropriate to ask voters to approve the realigned coalition. 

While consumption tax cut was a major issue among most parties, a hidden agenda was national security. Since the last general election, the environment that surrounds Japan has shifted considerably, primarily with Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Trump is openly resorting to raw power in his conduct of foreign policy, with little interest in defending value such as democracy. He is belittling the EU regularly and survival of the NATO is far from certain. The President might be less committed than his predecessors in defense of Taiwan in the event of China’s invasion into the island, should an acceptable deal could be reached between Xi Jinping and him. Xi’s China is increasingly more authoritarian. Chinese military planes are frequently invading Japan’s air space in Okinawa. Rows with China continues to persist since the ascent of Takaichi, and neither of the leaders is likely to back down. She is standing firm against intimidation from Xi Jinping, who is eager to see Takaichi ousted. Xi’s bullying backfired, driving Japanese voters toward the LDP. 

Facing an election, Komeito and the largest opposition party Constitutional Democrats formed a new party, Centrist Reform Alliance. In theory, the newly formed Centrists aimed to threaten the LDP with the former backed by a religious body and the latter by public workers unions. The former consider themselves center-right and the latter center-left though Constitutional Democrats were more left-leaning than they said they were. Combination of them would cover broad grounds, they thought. As it turned out, however, the newly formed party proved to have little appeal to voters, especially among young people. On forming the party, the Constitutional Democrats had to abandon their long-term adherence to policies of no nuclear power generation and anti-defense spending. Their predecessor Japan Socialist Party for decades advocated ‘non-armed neutrality’ loudly speaking against the Self Defense Force. Such belief became proved out of touch with the shifting reality in the world. Komeito has been more pragmatic on these issue, of course, having been a partner in the ruling coalition for over twenty years. Constitutional Democrats, therefore, had to concede to Komeito on these issues all of a sudden, with no internal debates. A sudden shift confused and dismayed the party’s long-term base. Being so behind the changing world, they had to adjusted themselves to the reality sooner or later. That necessary adjustment came all of a sudden, without digesting it, upsetting the base as well as their politicians. 

As it turned out, leftists were wiped out. Only 49 Centrist candidates were elected, as opposed to 167 men and women who held seats prior to the dissolution. The number of former Komeito representatives still rose to 28 up from 21. Former Social Democrats on the other hand suffered a spectacular blow of 21 candidates elected, all the way down from 144 seats they had until January. The Centrists failed to appeal to voters, headed by two old men, Komeito’s Saito and Constitutional Democrats’ Noda who are 74 and 68 old respectively. The two old men excited few people, especially with their views not keeping g up with the changing world. In contrast, Takaichi, 64, looks younger than she is, with passionate presentations on how she would change the country as opposed to two old men who spoke about sticking with what they thought as good old days. Three other minor left wing parties, including the Communists, suffered serious blows, too. Altogether, leftists account for a little over 10% in the new Lower House. In contrast, all but one of other right or center right parties, including coalition junior partner Ishin, made some gains, on top of the LDP’s massive win.

Now Takaichi is given a huge mandate. To begin with, she is determined to lift growth. In a press conference the day after the election she also made it clear that she was going to make some efforts toward an amendment of the Constitution, which has never been touched since it was authored by the U.S. Occupation Force in 1947. This will have to go through a long, careful process, but she is determined to move forward. Amending the Constitution has been the LDP’s decades-long, cherished wish. She also expressed her intention to strengthen the government’s intelligence capability. To be specific, she plans to create the Japanese equivalent of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States (CIFIUS) and Espionage Act of 1917. Japan is the only G7 country without neither intelligence correction office or ant-spy law. Takaichi wants Japan to be more ’normal’ on this front. With the diminished representation by the left, the bar for such moves have come down considerably. 

About the author: Mr. Suzuki is a retired banker based in Tokyo, Japan.